The situation and direction of China's aluminum processing industry in the new era
China Nonferrous Metals network
Editor's note: Fan Shunke, chairman of China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association, gave a comprehensive introduction to the basic situation and development characteristics of China's aluminum processing industry at the annual meeting of China's aluminum processing industry on the topic of "The Situation and Direction of Efforts Faced by China's aluminum processing industry in the New Era" recently. The aluminum processing industry is facing the situation and the direction of its efforts.
I. Basic Situation
(1) Output
According to the data released jointly by the Processing Association and Antaike, the total output of aluminum-processed materials, including sheet, strip, Aluminum profile extrusion, foil, wire, aluminum powder and forgings, will be 38.2 million tons in 2017. The total output of aluminum sheets and strips is 34.05 million tons, an increase of 7.8% over 2016. Among them, 10.3 million tons of aluminum strip, 14.2% more than the previous year; 3.65 million tons of aluminum foil, 14.8% more than the previous year; 19.5 million tons of aluminum extrusion materials, 5.1% more than the previous year. In 2017, China accounted for 57% of the world's total output.
(2) Speed up
China's aluminum production grew rapidly, and began to surpass the sum of other countries in 2010. From 2001 to 2017, the annual composite growth rate of aluminum processing material production in China reached 16.6%, far higher than the average growth rate of 1.9% in other countries, and became the key force to promote the global aluminum production growth.
(3) Exports
China is the world's No.1 exporter of aluminum. Total net exports in 2005 and net exports in 2017 amounted to 3 million 820 thousand tons. Among them, aluminum profiles in 2001 The early net export, aluminum foil in 2004 net export, aluminum strip aluminum profile in 2008 net export. China's aluminum production mainly meets domestic demand, with a total consumption of 34.45 million tons in 2017, of which 30.23 million tons were consumed domestically and 4.22 million tons were exported, accounting for about 12% of total consumption.
(4) Export unit price
Most of China's exports are ordinary aluminum products with medium and low added value. In 2017, the export unit prices of aluminum bar, strip and foil are 5.6%, 21.9% and 26.1% lower than the global average respectively.
(5) Investment
In 2017, China's aluminum processing industry completed investment in fixed assets of 164.6 billion RMB, followed by 2015, 2016 two years backward growth again, an increase of 6.0%; the total assets of 813.6 billion RMB, asset-liability ratio of 55.9%; although the aluminum processing industry maintained profitability, but the overall level of profitability tends to decline, revenue margin of 2017 is 4.7%, in November-March 2018 Down to 4%, or 3.5%. Investment growth has picked up, and there has been a further downward trend in profitability.
6) Capacity utilization and industrial concentration
In 2017, China's total output of aluminum processing materials was 38.2 million tons; according to the statistics of the State Statistical Bureau, the number of aluminum processing enterprises above the scale in 2017 was 2004, and the average output of aluminum processing enterprises was only 19,000 tons, with a low degree of intensive production.
II, Development characteristics
(1) Upstream and downstream integration, short process is highly respected.
The proportion of aluminum extrusion ingots, rolling slabs and round aluminum rods produced by short-process direct supply of aluminum liquid has been increasing, energy saving, cost reducing and efficiency increasing have been obvious, and the aluminum processing agglomeration area has been shifted from consumption to raw material producing area. Shandong, as the largest producer of electrolytic aluminum in China's, has also become the concentration area of short-process production mode of aluminum industry in China and even in the world.
(2) The growth of industrial clusters and the improvement of industrial efficiency.
Enterprises gather in a region to form a cluster effect, can share the industrial ecology, enterprise individual and regional competitiveness can be effectively improved. China's mature industrial clusters include Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, the South China Sea, Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta.
(3) The development stages of aluminum varieties are different.
Extrusion material, aluminum profile is a kind of superior aluminum material in our country, with large output, complete variety, excellent quality, early extension of deep processing, advanced standard, advanced equipment and reasonable layout. some extrusion enterprises have already become the world leader in the early stage of powerful country. aluminum foil production has entered the stage of alongside developed countries, with large output, products. It is the only country in the world that can produce ultra-thin capacitor aluminum foil with a width of more than 1.1m and a width of 0.004mm. However, there are still gaps in the production capacity and quality of some advanced products. Strong, but abs, aviation aluminum and other high-end products technology and product rate has a big gap with developed countries, especially the civil aircraft aluminum market share is very low; in addition to the extension of deep processing began in a wide range of industries.
(4) The production equipment of aluminum plates has entered the world advanced ranks in 10 years.
In extrusion production, the number of large-scale extrusion machine, tonnage large, with more than 45 mn large-scale extrusion machine more than 120, of which the large tonnage of 225mn, unique to the world; many extrusion machines from the German SMS Meer GmbH Company. In the production of aluminum foil, the technology of producing aluminum foil by casting and rolling strip is comprehensively mastered. Nearly 80% of aluminum foil is produced by this short process, energy-saving and environmental protection technology; there are more wide-width aluminum foil rolling mills in the world; and there are more rolling mills in Germany Achenbach than in the world. In strip aluminum profile production, the hot strip rolling production line has a complete style, a large number, advanced, 1 + 3 to 1 + 5 hot strip production lines nearly 20; German SMS Meer GmbH has a large number of hot strip mills in the world. High-end market segmentation, the establishment of specialized ABS plate production lines, aviation thick plate, extrusion, forging production lines, equipment leading the world. Aluminum deep processing capacity has been significantly improved. Friction stir welding and machining center equipment has reached the world advanced level. Surface treatment line is complete. Processing equipment exports to achieve zero breakthrough, Zhuoshen Foil Rolling Mill exported to Japan.
(5) The emergence of large enterprises and the highlight of international influence
Zhongwang Tianjin strip project is a global scale large, advanced equipment aluminum strip monomer project; Shandong Longkou, Binzhou is the global industrial chain the complete, variety of perfect area; the world 440m above the top ten curtain wall profiles used in construction are from Xingfa, Jianmei and other Chinese manufacturers; Dingsheng is a large aluminum foil manufacturer.
(6) Enhance soft power and develop distinctive features.
SNTO Group, Shandong Conglin, Midas Holdings, Liyuan Precision and other extensions of intensive processing to provide solutions for downstream users; CHALCO Ruimin, Jianmei Aluminum, Wanhe Industry, Dingsheng New Materials and other focus on the market segmentation, forming a professional characteristics; China Zhongwang, Nanshan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao and other with the help of the capital city The field has achieved leaping development.
(7) Accelerate the pace of innovation and achieve fruitful results.
In terms of variety and quality, substitution for imports continued to advance, not only in the civil field, but also in the field of high-end aluminium products have basically got rid of the dependence on imported products. The quality of general aluminum alloy building profiles, aluminum strip and aluminum foil is generally up to the international level. In terms of standards and patents, national standards such as GB / T 5237 "aluminum alloy building profiles", "gb / T 3198" aluminum and aluminum alloy foil ","gb / T 3880"aluminum and aluminum alloy plates and strips for general industrial use", "gb / T 8013" aluminum and aluminum alloy anodic oxide film and organic polymer film" have been recognized and adopted by many countries in the world. The total application amount of aluminum patents totaled 31023, of which 12928 were entitled to patents, accounting for 42%. In terms of scientific and technological achievements, the research and application of 12,000 tons of aeronautical aluminum alloy thick plate tension drawing equipment high-performance large-size complex cross-section aluminum alloy profile extrusion forming and application technology won the second-class national science and technology award, high-strength and high-toughness 7050 aluminum alloy super-thick plate industrial manufacturing technology scrap aluminum alloy regeneration target component industrialization technology The key technologies and applications of uniform and precise heating of the furnace are awarded the first prize in science and technology of China nonferrous metals industry. Innovation, CHALCO, Xinjiang Joinworld, CYMCO, Northeast Light Alloy Co., Ltd. 17 enterprises of aluminum processing technology center by the state.
(8) remarkable achievements have been made in expanding applications, and new products continue to emerge.
In the field of transportation, aluminum is replaced by steel, and the construction industry has made positive progress in the field of aluminum saving wood and aluminum in plastic packaging. It is understood that more than 50 aluminum alloy overpasses have been built in China, and more than 20 are under construction; the Aluminization rate of domestic building formwork exceeds 17%; the number of aluminum commercial vehicles in China exceeds 55,000, of which the number of aluminum new energy buses exceeds 35,000.
III, challenges
(1) the total volume of demand is one by one, and the pace of growth is narrowing.
The research shows that China's per capita aluminum consumption is likely to enter the saturation stage in the period of six to seven years, and the total aluminum consumption of the whole caliber will also enter the plateau period around 2023. It is expected to reach the scale of 46 million to 50 million tons. China's economy has entered a new normal growth rate from high speed growth to medium and high speed, and aluminum demand growth has slowed down systematically. At the same time, in the post-industrial era, it is a general rule that consumption intensity tends to weaken, and consumption growth is expected to drop from the previous two digits to about 6%.
(2) serious homogenization of products and intensified competition in the industry.
Overcapacity, low industrial concentration, serious homogenization of products, industry competition tends to be fierce; excess capacity exists not only in low-end products, but also in the field of high-end products spread. The aluminum processing industry should be highly valued.
(3) Basic research lags behind industrial development.
At this stage, there is still a lack of independent innovation in the development of new alloys. The research and development of alloy brands mostly imitate foreign countries. Aluminum alloy brands registered by AA are close to 700, of which only three are from China. Research on basic theory and technology is lagging behind, and there is insufficient research on common scientific problems behind technological bottlenecks. For example, the basic theories of alloying, strengthening mechanism of alloys, heat treatment theory, dislocation theory, plastic deformation theory, fracture mechanism, corrosion theory, the relationship between microstructure and properties and many other aspects of the basic theory, regardless of the breadth and depth of the developed countries have a great gap.
(3) Environmental requirements are strict, and inspectors tend to be normal.
Nowadays, the environmental protection standards are constantly improving, and the pollutant discharge standards of aluminum profiles industry are also being formulated. The importance of hazardous waste supervision and control is increasing.
The environmental risk points of aluminum extrusion production include: waste gas and waste residue produced in the casting process, of which aluminum residue belongs to hazardous waste; extrusion process, the main source of pollution is mold surface treatment wastewater; oxidation electrophoresis process, mainly waste acid gas pollution, waste water and waste water residue after treatment (listed as hazardous waste by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, only large at present). The main processes of powder spraying and painting are organic solvent waste gas pollution, pretreatment waste water pollution and waste water residue pollution (hazardous waste).
The main links of pollution problems in aluminum rolling enterprises are as follows: the smelting and casting process is similar to that in aluminum extrusion enterprises; the emulsified liquid used in hot rolling process needs to be filtered through filter cloth in order to recycle, and the waste filter cloth belongs to dangerous waste; the rolling oil used in cold rolling process should be reused and rolled. In the process, diatomite and other media should be used for filtration. Discarded diatomite and other media are hazardous waste.
(5) Corporate debt risk highlights
In recent years, the debt risk of aluminum processing enterprises has increased, bankruptcy and bankruptcy cases occur frequently, enterprises should pay enough attention to prevent in advance.
(6) Comprehensive upgrading of trade frictions
The US is provoking a global trade war, involving many products, reaching the scale of 100 billion US dollars. In view of the wide application of aluminum, the upgrade of trade friction has not only a direct impact but also an indirect impact on the aluminum industry.
America's influence on China's aluminum foil and strip has been manifested. In 2017, China exported 145,000 tons of aluminum foil to the United States, a decrease of 12.1% compared with 2016; in the first three months of 2018, 16,000 tons of aluminum foil were exported, a decrease of 67.5% compared with the same period of the same period; and in April 2018, the preliminary ruling of double-reverse plate and strip was implemented, and China's exports to the United States will be greatly reduced.
IV, Goals and directions
Under the new situation, the whole industry should strive to improve the quality and efficiency of development, expand effective supply, constantly meet the people's growing needs for a better life, and promote the transformation of aluminum processing industry from a big country to a powerful country.
V, Countermeasures
(1) Strengthening independent innovation.
Strengthen basic research and application research and development; attach importance to patents, standards, scientific and technological achievements, follow up advanced technology; promote Chinese technology, Chinese equipment, Chinese products, Chinese standards to go out; improve the cooperation mechanism between industry, University and research, give full play to engineering center, enterprise technology center, enterprise research institute, academician workstation, postdoctoral workstation And so on.
(2) Actively expanding applications
There is still a gap between China's aluminum consumption level and developed countries, and there are still many new applications to be developed. Our aluminum processing industry should strive to: train customers, widely publicize the advantages of aluminum; in-depth consumer, active infiltration of aluminum applications; extend deep processing, to provide the overall solution.
(3) Pay attention to capital operation
Conditional enterprises should actively plan to go public and realize enterprise value-added, wealth value-added, asset value-added and brand value-added by means of capital market. We should attach importance to and utilize the financial attributes of aluminum and fully consider the fluctuation of aluminum price. Using futures tools and hedging operation can avoid the risk of price fluctuation of aluminum ingot raw materials to a certain extent, improve the efficiency of capital utilization, lock the risk and profit in a controllable range, at the same time, can sense the change of supply and demand in advance, scientific organization of raw material procurement and other operations and production.
(4) Attach importance to talent training
Build entrepreneurship and inherit entrepreneurship in the two generation. Entrepreneurs have always been the backbone of the development of innovative economy, the development of innovative economy is the world trend, Chinese entrepreneurs have great prospects, aluminum processing industry also needs more entrepreneurs and innovators. We should attach importance to the cultivation of scientific and technological personnel and team building, vigorously promote the spirit of craftsmen, cultivate the culture of craftsmen, adhere to professional ethics, advocate excellence, cultivate Chinese craftsmen in the aluminum processing industry, and create more Chinese brands that are well-known in the world aluminum industry.
(5) Enhance our strength and actively deal with friction.
We should conscientiously study the international trade situation and recognize the reality of the expansion and normalization of international trade frictions. Actively deal with international trade friction, not picky, not afraid of the matter, the enterprises involved should actively respond to the case, and strive to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests.
(6) Expand emerging markets and strengthen international cooperation in production capacity.
We should study the consumption potential of Southeast Asia, South Asia and Middle East countries, actively seek export substitution markets, stabilize and further expand Aluminum profile exports. To improve the global layout, qualified enterprises can acquire and take part in the world's leading aluminum processing and application enterprises, enhance their international business capability, deeply integrate into the value chain of global aluminum processing and application industries, and achieve bend overtaking. Aluminum processing capacity should also go out, when the conditions are available and the time is ripe, directly to densely populated countries and regions to build aluminum processing bases to meet local needs, to a certain extent, to resolve the impact of international trade protection.
