According to data, up to now, the completed capacity of alumina in China has reached 103 million tons, breaking through the mark of 100 million tons, and the operational capacity has reached 83.2 million tons. The current operating capacity of imported ore reaches 52 million tons. If this operating capacity is maintained, the annual demand for imported ore will be about 140 million tons. If the new product can have the demand for the construction of storage, the purchase volume of imported ore is expected to reach 150 million tons this year.
New capacity in the past two years has been imported ore, which has led to a surge in demand for imported ore, with China importing a record 125,697,800 tonnes of bauxite in 2022. According to ALD rough statistics, domestic 15 purchasers' purchase ore orders also reached more than 130 million tons.
According to the latest customs data, China imported 23.617,100 tonnes of bauxite in the first two months of 2023, with January's bauxite import reaching a record 12,380,900 tonnes and Guinea bauxite imports of 9.206 million tonnes, also a record high. February's imports of 7.917,800 tonnes of Guinean bauxite were the second highest on record, and the two months 'record volume seemed to confirm that Guinea can transport, barge and load more than 8 million tonnes of bauxite during the dry season.
In terms of Guinea's imports from month to month, there is an increase in month-to-month fluctuations and a significant decrease during the rainy season, but even so, the overall increase in imports is very significant. In addition, mining enterprises are also actively looking for ways to solve the problem of declining shipments due to the long rainy season. For example, the belt operation and maintenance team of Chalco Guinea has carried out more than 20 major technical improvements, such as ore particle size control, which better solved the ore's strong impact, blockage and scattering in the rainy season, and dust flying in the dry season. A stable production system adapted to both the rainy and dry seasons has been established.
However, the import ore market needs to face the problems are:
Firstly, the ore order volume of 140-150 million tons, how strong is the execution? On the one hand, many of these orders are long-term futures. However, from the signing of the order to mining, transportation, shipment, arrival at the port, and so on, sometimes it takes a long process, during which many factors may disturb the execution of the order, and the case of the order cannot be executed is also common.
Secondly, the fluctuation of demand, the inland aluminum oxide plants represented by Shanxi and Henan are still in demand for imported ore, and many factories are not yet produced. The reason why they can not lock the bauxite ore is caused by the high cost. Once the alumina market and the price change greatly, the demand for imported ore will increase or decrease.
Thirdly, Guinea's mining capacity. Although Guinea imported 9.206 million tons in January, the weather conditions and the mining industry's ability to transport the minerals make it difficult for Guinea to maintain a high monthly export rate. If the annual import rate reaches 150 million tons, it means that Guinea must be able to export 100 million tons of ore, which is more than 8.3 million tons per month. Past data and experience should be taken with a grain of salt.
Therefore, it is clear that in 2023, the demand space for China's imported ore will be further expanded, and the increase in the import volume is in line with the forecast of market participants. However, the market changes rapidly. At present, we can only hold on to this expectation and wait for market verification.
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